Will the variant cause more severe Covid? However, there is a bigger risk that monoclonal antibodies, such as Regeneron’s treatment, could fail or partially fail because they target parts of the virus that will have mutated. Scientists expect that recently approved antiviral drugs, such as Merck’s pill, will work as effectively against the new variant because these drugs do not target the spike protein – they work by stopping the virus from replicating. So a crucial objective remains to increase vaccination rates, including third doses for at-risk groups. Scientists do not expect that the variant will be entirely unrecognisable to existing antibodies, just that current vaccines may give less protection. Real-world data on reinfection rates will also give a clearer indication on the extent of any change in immunity. These are theoretical predictions, though, and studies are rapidly being conducted to test how effectively antibodies neutralise the new variant. Scientists are concerned by the number of mutations and the fact some of them have already been linked to an ability to evade existing immune protection. There is a chance this is a statistical blip linked to a super-spreader event but the data has triggered enough concern for precautionary measures. The R value, which indicates how fast an epidemic is growing, is estimated to be 1.47 for South Africa as a whole, but 1.93 in Gauteng. More than 80% of these were from Gauteng province and preliminary analysis suggests the variant has rapidly become the dominant strain. There has been a surge of cases in South Africa from 273 cases on 16 November to more than 1,200 by the start of this week. This is not yet clearcut but the emerging picture is worrying. Purely based on knowing the list of mutations, scientists anticipate that the virus will be more likely to infect – or reinfect – people who have immunity to earlier variants. Such a dramatic change has raised concerns that the antibodies from previous infections or vaccination may no longer be well matched. The variant has more than 30 mutations on its spike protein – the key used by the virus to unlock our body’s cells – more than double the number carried by Delta. Scientists say that the unusual constellation of mutations suggests it may have emerged during a chronic infection of an immunocompromised person, such as an untreated HIV/Aids patient. The earliest sample showing the variant was collected in Botswana on 11 November. Where did it come from?Īlthough initially linked to Gauteng, the variant did not necessarily originate there.
These two factors put it quickly on the radar of international monitors, with the chief medical adviser to the UK Health and Security Agency describing the variant as the “ most worrying we’ve seen”. It was also linked to a surge in case numbers in the Gauteng province of South Africa, an urban area containing Pretoria and Johannesburg, in the past two weeks. The B.1.1.529 variant was identified on Tuesday and highlighted as a concern due to its high number of mutations, which could lead it to evade immunity. When was the Omicron variant first detected?
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